Zambia Heads to Polls with President Hichilema Expected to Win Second Term

The general election in Zambia, scheduled to take place on Thursday, has been widely expected to give President Hakainde Hichilema a second term. His economic record faces scrutiny from voters frustrated by the cost of living, prompting an examination of whether Hichilema’s administration has truly delivered on its promises.

Hichilema has led Zambia since 2021 and steered the country through a debt restructuring and economic rebound after defaulting on its sovereign debt in 2020. However, as the opposition seeks to capitalize on discontent despite deep divisions, it is clear that Hichilema’s support is not unwavering.

The main challenger, Brian Mundubile, an experienced parliamentarian but first-time presidential candidate, has struggled to rally a unified opposition behind him. This splintering of the opposition camp raises questions about its ability to effectively challenge the ruling party. Historian and analyst Euston Chiputa notes that “one of the serious weaknesses in the opposition camp is that it is splintered,” with parliamentary and local government candidates from Mundubile’s party competing against those from his running-mate’s party in some areas.

Despite this, many Zambians remain skeptical about Hichilema’s economic record. While indicators such as inflation have improved significantly since 2020, the benefits of these improvements are yet to be felt by ordinary citizens. The fact that investors widely expect Hichilema to win highlights the uncertainty surrounding his ability to turn macroeconomic turnaround into job-creating growth.

The lead-up to the vote has been marred by allegations of political repression in a country of 22 million people, although the government denies these claims. Zambia’s rating as “partly free” by Freedom House underscores concerns about the fairness of the electoral process. Political science lecturer Lee Habasonda notes that “if the opposition had rallied behind one candidate earlier, this would have been one of the toughest elections for the ruling party.”

As Zambians head to the polls on Thursday, it remains to be seen whether Hichilema will be able to replicate his 2021 victory. While there are legitimate concerns about the fairness of the electoral process and the impact of economic indicators on ordinary citizens’ daily lives, this election is not a simple case of “good versus evil.” The complexities surrounding Zambia’s economic turnaround and its implications for the future make for a far more nuanced narrative.

This election can be seen as a choice between continued optimism about Hichilema’s ability to deliver on his promises or a chance to glimpse into an alternative future with Mundubile at the helm. As polls open from 6 a.m. (0400 GMT) to 6 p.m., it will be interesting to see how this calculus plays out.

The results of this election are scheduled for Monday, and if the presidential vote goes to a second round, the run-off must be held within 37 days of the first poll. The stakes in this election go far beyond the fate of President Hichilema or his challenger; they speak to deeper questions about the direction of Zambia’s economy and the role that politics plays in shaping its future.

This is not simply a vote for who will occupy the presidency but also a vote for what kind of economic policies Zambians want to see implemented over the next five years. Will they choose to continue along the path laid out by Hichilema, or will they opt for a different approach under Mundubile? The answer lies with the voters themselves.

The outcome of this election has significant implications not just for Zambia but also for the broader region. As economic conditions in neighboring countries continue to deteriorate, Zambia’s example serves as a beacon of hope – or perhaps a warning sign. The next few days will be crucial in determining whether Hichilema’s vision for his country continues to inspire optimism about its future prospects.

Ultimately, the verdict on President Hakainde Hichilema’s economic record and his chances of securing a second term lies with the people of Zambia. As they cast their ballots on Thursday, they will also be deciding what kind of economy – and what kind of politics – they want to build for themselves over the next five years.

In doing so, Zambians will send a signal not just about their own country’s future but also about the values that underpin its economic policies. Will it be a vote for continued optimism about Hichilema’s ability to deliver on his promises? Or will it be a chance to glimpse into an alternative future with Mundubile at the helm?

The world will watch as Zambia navigates this complex electoral landscape, and what transpires in the coming days will have significant implications not just for Zambia itself but also for the broader region.